Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600420.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.28 - $45.06$25.22
Multi-Stage$22.40 - $24.62$23.49
Blended Fair Value$24.35
Current Price$10.64
Upside128.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.51%13.09%0.220.140.140.160.160.240.190.340.350.48
YoY Growth--58.79%2.52%-13.06%1.02%-35.19%24.10%-42.37%-3.01%-27.23%631.70%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.58%1.26%1.43%1.75%2.46%1.86%2.82%2.13%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)930.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)880.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.05116.2869.77
Cash Retained (M)880.71880.71880.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.05-116.28-69.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)694.66764.43810.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,341.111,341.111,341.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Fair Value$16.28$25.22$45.06
Upside / Downside53.01%137.03%323.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)930.27960.22991.141,023.051,055.991,089.991,122.69
Payout Ratio5.33%22.26%39.20%56.13%73.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.56213.76388.49574.25771.57981.001,038.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate2.22%3.22%4.22%
Year 1 PV (M)200.27202.23204.19
Year 2 PV (M)340.99347.69354.46
Year 3 PV (M)472.22486.21500.48
Year 4 PV (M)594.42618.03642.33
Year 5 PV (M)708.06743.38780.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,720.3829,103.0830,540.43
Equity Value (M)30,036.3331,500.6233,021.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,341.111,341.111,341.11
Fair Value$22.40$23.49$24.62
Upside / Downside110.49%120.76%131.42%

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