Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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CATRION Catering Holding Company (6004.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.92 - $19.69$17.41
Multi-Stage$43.83 - $48.58$46.15
Blended Fair Value$31.78
Current Price$99.45
Upside-68.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.90%-10.17%2.251.500.000.001.386.833.975.446.886.89
YoY Growth--50.44%315,846.96%-51.48%-99.93%-79.81%72.19%-27.15%-20.90%-0.08%4.64%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.18%0.00%0.00%1.81%9.05%4.90%6.59%7.66%6.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)187.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.1941.9925.19
Cash Retained (M)148.15148.15148.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.19-41.99-25.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.96106.16122.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)82.0082.0082.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.291.50
LTM Dividend per Share2.292.292.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.291.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.283.583.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-12.17%-11.17%-10.17%
Fair Value$14.92$17.41$19.69
Upside / Downside-84.99%-82.49%-80.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.93298.39265.04235.42209.12185.75191.32
Payout Ratio55.90%62.72%69.54%76.36%83.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)187.78187.14184.31179.77173.94167.17176.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-12.17%-11.17%-10.17%
Year 1 PV (M)172.75174.72176.68
Year 2 PV (M)157.05160.64164.28
Year 3 PV (M)141.40146.28151.28
Year 4 PV (M)126.29132.14138.19
Year 5 PV (M)112.04118.57125.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,884.153,052.133,227.84
Equity Value (M)3,593.683,784.483,983.68
Shares Outstanding (M)82.0082.0082.00
Fair Value$43.83$46.15$48.58
Upside / Downside-55.93%-53.59%-51.15%

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