Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hanma Technology Group Co.,Ltd. (600375.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.57 - $2.07$1.83
Multi-Stage$3.03 - $3.36$3.19
Blended Fair Value$2.51
Current Price$8.10
Upside-69.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.49%-16.97%0.020.080.080.100.110.100.120.080.090.08
YoY Growth---76.55%7.63%-27.15%-6.30%8.56%-18.22%56.28%-10.50%13.13%-35.64%
Dividend Yield--0.31%1.67%1.02%1.08%1.54%2.37%1.97%1.53%1.06%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)570.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)551.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.0171.2642.76
Cash Retained (M)551.72551.72551.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.01-71.26-42.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)437.71480.46508.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,369.431,369.431,369.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate-9.93%-8.93%-7.93%
Fair Value$1.57$1.83$2.07
Upside / Downside-80.65%-77.42%-74.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)570.07519.15472.79430.56392.10357.08367.79
Payout Ratio3.22%20.58%37.93%55.29%72.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.35106.82179.33238.04284.84321.37340.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.21%9.21%9.21%
Growth Rate-9.93%-8.93%-7.93%
Year 1 PV (M)96.7497.8198.89
Year 2 PV (M)147.09150.37153.69
Year 3 PV (M)176.82182.78188.86
Year 4 PV (M)191.62200.27209.21
Year 5 PV (M)195.80206.91218.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,340.003,529.583,727.67
Equity Value (M)4,148.064,367.724,596.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,369.431,369.431,369.43
Fair Value$3.03$3.19$3.36
Upside / Downside-62.60%-60.62%-58.56%

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