Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co., Ltd. (600353.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.30 - $4.32$3.12
Multi-Stage$2.27 - $2.48$2.37
Blended Fair Value$2.74
Current Price$16.75
Upside-83.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.09%4.84%0.050.010.010.020.040.040.010.020.020.02
YoY Growth--392.97%102.35%-75.05%-51.79%6.81%204.46%-16.93%-7.39%-23.12%-30.47%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.15%0.06%0.42%1.33%1.12%0.33%0.37%0.23%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.5415.349.20
Cash Retained (M)62.5062.5062.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.54-15.34-9.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.9647.1753.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)829.74829.74829.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.73%4.73%5.73%
Fair Value$2.30$3.12$4.32
Upside / Downside-86.30%-81.39%-74.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.72128.53134.61140.98147.65154.63159.27
Payout Ratio49.07%57.25%65.44%73.63%81.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.2173.5888.09103.80120.79139.17147.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate3.73%4.73%5.73%
Year 1 PV (M)66.8267.4668.10
Year 2 PV (M)72.6374.0375.45
Year 3 PV (M)77.7179.9882.29
Year 4 PV (M)82.1185.3388.63
Year 5 PV (M)85.9090.1294.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,496.041,569.561,645.93
Equity Value (M)1,881.211,966.482,054.92
Shares Outstanding (M)829.74829.74829.74
Fair Value$2.27$2.37$2.48
Upside / Downside-86.46%-85.85%-85.21%

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