Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Grandblue Environment Co., Ltd. (600323.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$237.44 - $460.44$431.50
Multi-Stage$71.00 - $77.76$74.31
Blended Fair Value$252.91
Current Price$27.03
Upside835.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.16%15.53%1.090.900.880.770.720.590.470.440.390.41
YoY Growth--22.13%1.42%14.52%7.26%21.95%24.68%8.30%11.10%-4.87%60.04%
Dividend Yield--4.58%5.38%4.95%4.13%2.69%2.95%2.71%3.12%2.78%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,883.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)442.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,441.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)376.70235.44141.26
Cash Retained (M)1,441.461,441.461,441.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-376.70-235.44-141.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,064.761,206.021,300.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)813.54813.54813.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.311.481.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.311.481.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.032.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$237.44$431.50$460.44
Upside / Downside778.42%1,496.36%1,603.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,883.512,005.932,136.322,275.182,423.072,580.572,657.98
Payout Ratio23.47%36.78%50.08%63.39%76.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)442.04737.691,069.901,442.181,858.342,322.512,458.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)687.30693.82700.33
Year 2 PV (M)928.74946.43964.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,166.401,199.881,234.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,400.321,454.181,509.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,630.561,709.311,791.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,945.3754,454.3557,059.36
Equity Value (M)57,758.7060,457.9863,258.63
Shares Outstanding (M)813.54813.54813.54
Fair Value$71.00$74.31$77.76
Upside / Downside162.66%174.94%187.67%

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