Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (600104.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.77 - $1.00$0.89
Multi-Stage$1.11 - $1.20$1.15
Blended Fair Value$1.02
Current Price$17.12
Upside-94.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.61%-5.44%0.660.610.690.811.091.462.021.811.361.30
YoY Growth--8.99%-11.55%-15.23%-25.34%-25.60%-27.86%11.51%33.41%4.37%12.45%
Dividend Yield--4.20%3.98%4.79%4.77%5.52%7.12%7.61%5.34%5.36%6.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,859.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,145.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)714.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)571.96357.48214.49
Cash Retained (M)714.46714.46714.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-571.96-357.48-214.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.50356.98499.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,414.2011,414.2011,414.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate-7.44%-6.44%-5.44%
Fair Value$0.77$0.89$1.00
Upside / Downside-95.48%-94.78%-94.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,859.812,675.722,503.482,342.322,191.542,050.462,111.98
Payout Ratio75.02%78.01%81.01%84.01%87.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,145.352,087.432,028.071,967.711,906.711,845.421,953.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate-7.44%-6.44%-5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)1,772.411,791.561,810.70
Year 2 PV (M)1,462.141,493.901,526.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,204.531,243.991,284.31
Year 4 PV (M)991.041,034.571,079.52
Year 5 PV (M)814.43859.39906.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,379.396,731.517,099.01
Equity Value (M)12,623.9313,154.9113,705.85
Shares Outstanding (M)11,414.2011,414.2011,414.20
Fair Value$1.11$1.15$1.20
Upside / Downside-93.54%-93.27%-92.99%

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