Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Kaichuang Marine International Co., Ltd. (600097.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.10 - $4.52$3.79
Multi-Stage$6.17 - $6.80$6.48
Blended Fair Value$5.13
Current Price$11.10
Upside-53.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.03%-0.97%0.200.130.240.190.110.230.150.070.060.17
YoY Growth--46.96%-44.19%27.30%65.96%-50.51%54.40%129.75%3.33%-63.79%-20.30%
Dividend Yield--2.10%1.34%2.23%1.47%1.22%2.32%1.11%0.48%0.34%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)105.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.0713.177.90
Cash Retained (M)82.8982.8982.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.07-13.17-7.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.8369.7274.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)249.66249.66249.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate-2.97%-1.97%-0.97%
Fair Value$3.10$3.79$4.52
Upside / Downside-72.03%-65.86%-59.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)105.33103.25101.2299.2397.2895.3698.22
Payout Ratio21.30%35.04%48.78%62.52%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.4436.1849.3862.0474.1885.8290.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate-2.97%-1.97%-0.97%
Year 1 PV (M)33.2933.6333.98
Year 2 PV (M)41.8042.6643.54
Year 3 PV (M)48.3249.8351.37
Year 4 PV (M)53.1655.3857.68
Year 5 PV (M)56.5859.5662.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,307.561,376.341,447.99
Equity Value (M)1,540.701,617.401,697.20
Shares Outstanding (M)249.66249.66249.66
Fair Value$6.17$6.48$6.80
Upside / Downside-44.40%-41.64%-38.76%

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