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Definitive Analysis

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SDIC Capital Co.,Ltd (600061.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.04 - $96.49$90.42
Multi-Stage$12.67 - $13.87$13.26
Blended Fair Value$51.84
Current Price$7.89
Upside557.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.41%24.75%0.480.430.490.450.420.330.250.430.410.23
YoY Growth--10.77%-11.45%8.31%7.68%24.99%32.03%-40.67%4.51%74.22%347.61%
Dividend Yield--6.75%6.62%7.01%6.37%5.19%4.14%2.60%5.09%4.13%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,466.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,005.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,461.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)693.35433.34260.01
Cash Retained (M)2,461.442,461.442,461.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-693.35-433.34-260.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,768.102,028.102,201.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,139.667,139.667,139.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Fair Value$28.04$90.42$96.49
Upside / Downside255.43%1,046.04%1,122.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,466.743,689.063,925.654,177.414,445.314,730.404,872.31
Payout Ratio29.00%41.20%53.40%65.60%77.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,005.291,519.842,096.262,740.353,458.444,257.364,506.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Year 1 PV (M)1,408.741,422.101,435.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,800.961,835.301,869.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,182.212,244.912,308.79
Year 4 PV (M)2,552.712,650.962,752.02
Year 5 PV (M)2,912.673,053.473,199.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,606.5483,454.8087,450.45
Equity Value (M)90,463.8494,661.5499,016.35
Shares Outstanding (M)7,139.667,139.667,139.66
Fair Value$12.67$13.26$13.87
Upside / Downside60.59%68.04%75.77%

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