Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600019.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.47 - $9.38$7.16
Multi-Stage$10.30 - $11.33$10.80
Blended Fair Value$8.98
Current Price$7.07
Upside27.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.84%9.50%0.370.270.510.780.340.620.620.380.240.20
YoY Growth--34.29%-46.58%-33.75%131.27%-45.78%0.24%64.54%56.26%17.39%37.46%
Dividend Yield--5.12%4.14%8.24%11.49%4.15%12.70%8.19%4.40%3.69%3.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,439.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,758.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,680.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,887.851,179.90707.94
Cash Retained (M)6,680.486,680.486,680.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,887.85-1,179.90-707.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,792.635,500.575,972.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21,574.7321,574.7321,574.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Fair Value$5.47$7.16$9.38
Upside / Downside-22.64%1.29%32.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,439.239,529.129,619.869,711.469,803.949,897.3010,194.22
Payout Ratio29.23%41.38%53.54%65.69%77.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,758.763,943.265,150.086,379.527,631.918,907.579,429.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.05%0.95%1.95%
Year 1 PV (M)3,671.123,707.853,744.58
Year 2 PV (M)4,463.764,553.524,644.18
Year 3 PV (M)5,147.765,303.815,462.99
Year 4 PV (M)5,733.335,966.236,206.17
Year 5 PV (M)6,229.836,547.776,878.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)196,926.96206,977.10217,433.46
Equity Value (M)222,172.75233,056.30244,369.94
Shares Outstanding (M)21,574.7321,574.7321,574.73
Fair Value$10.30$10.80$11.33
Upside / Downside45.66%52.79%60.21%

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