Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Farm Fresh Berhad (5306.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.61 - $0.94$0.76
Multi-Stage$1.36 - $1.50$1.43
Blended Fair Value$1.09
Current Price$2.27
Upside-51.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--120.25%-5.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.20%0.64%0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.7415.469.28
Cash Retained (M)82.4582.4582.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.74-15.46-9.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.7266.9973.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,881.381,881.381,881.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.61$0.76$0.94
Upside / Downside-73.22%-66.45%-58.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.68122.45121.22120.01118.81117.62121.15
Payout Ratio33.34%44.67%56.00%67.33%78.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.2354.6967.8980.8193.46105.86112.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.8551.3751.89
Year 2 PV (M)58.6759.8861.09
Year 3 PV (M)64.9366.9468.99
Year 4 PV (M)69.8272.7175.69
Year 5 PV (M)73.5277.3481.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,237.632,354.152,475.47
Equity Value (M)2,555.412,682.382,814.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,881.381,881.381,881.38
Fair Value$1.36$1.43$1.50
Upside / Downside-40.16%-37.19%-34.10%

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