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Definitive Analysis

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Sumitomo Riko Company Limited (5191.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22,807.77 - $55,764.00$52,259.03
Multi-Stage$8,050.92 - $8,815.89$8,426.36
Blended Fair Value$30,342.70
Current Price$2,206.00
Upside1,275.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS36.44%11.19%52.0016.0014.0014.007.0011.0020.0020.0018.0018.00
YoY Growth--225.05%14.24%0.00%100.00%-36.34%-45.02%0.00%11.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%1.09%1.64%2.38%0.97%1.76%2.35%1.76%1.56%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29,112.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,853.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,259.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,822.403,639.002,183.40
Cash Retained (M)22,259.0022,259.0022,259.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,822.40-3,639.00-2,183.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,436.6018,620.0020,075.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.82103.82103.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share158.31179.34193.36
LTM Dividend per Share66.0166.0166.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share158.31179.34193.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend224.32245.35259.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22,807.77$52,259.03$55,764.00
Upside / Downside933.90%2,268.95%2,427.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29,112.0031,004.2833,019.5635,165.8337,451.6139,885.9641,082.54
Payout Ratio23.54%36.83%50.12%63.42%76.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,853.0011,419.5316,550.7522,300.7828,728.3935,897.3738,001.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,618.1310,718.7710,819.42
Year 2 PV (M)14,309.2714,581.8214,856.94
Year 3 PV (M)17,927.5018,442.1418,966.53
Year 4 PV (M)21,473.9022,299.7223,149.14
Year 5 PV (M)24,949.5226,154.5927,405.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)746,601.53782,662.66820,103.94
Equity Value (M)835,879.84874,859.70915,301.75
Shares Outstanding (M)103.82103.82103.82
Fair Value$8,050.92$8,426.36$8,815.89
Upside / Downside264.96%281.97%299.63%

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