Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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OSK Holdings Berhad (5053.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.84 - $52.84$49.51
Multi-Stage$8.23 - $9.02$8.62
Blended Fair Value$29.07
Current Price$1.17
Upside2,384.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.81%7.30%0.070.070.060.040.040.050.060.050.030.11
YoY Growth--0.00%16.67%50.00%-0.42%-20.25%-9.09%10.00%50.00%-69.20%215.21%
Dividend Yield--5.98%7.14%9.05%6.25%6.09%10.57%8.79%7.55%4.78%14.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)551.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)489.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.2368.8941.33
Cash Retained (M)489.27489.27489.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.23-68.89-41.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)379.04420.37447.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,062.102,062.102,062.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Fair Value$16.84$49.51$52.84
Upside / Downside1,339.13%4,131.95%4,416.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)551.13583.44617.65653.87692.21732.80754.78
Payout Ratio11.22%26.98%42.73%58.49%74.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.86157.41263.95382.45513.93659.52698.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.86%5.86%6.86%
Year 1 PV (M)146.83148.23149.63
Year 2 PV (M)229.65234.06238.50
Year 3 PV (M)310.38319.34328.48
Year 4 PV (M)389.04404.10419.58
Year 5 PV (M)465.69488.32511.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,429.4416,179.3016,958.03
Equity Value (M)16,971.0417,773.3518,606.05
Shares Outstanding (M)2,062.102,062.102,062.10
Fair Value$8.23$8.62$9.02
Upside / Downside603.42%636.67%671.18%

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