Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Terumo Corporation (4543.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,445.26 - $8,339.54$4,013.29
Multi-Stage$1,580.85 - $1,727.52$1,652.85
Blended Fair Value$2,833.07
Current Price$2,443.00
Upside15.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.68%12.46%24.1321.6918.9015.8914.3313.8913.2510.739.848.94
YoY Growth--11.28%14.73%18.95%10.87%3.16%4.87%23.46%9.10%9.98%19.87%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.85%0.83%0.78%0.64%0.68%0.81%0.68%0.89%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130,671.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38,460.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)92,211.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26,134.2016,333.889,800.33
Cash Retained (M)92,211.0092,211.0092,211.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-26,134.20-16,333.88-9,800.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)66,076.8075,877.1382,410.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,476.071,476.071,476.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.7751.4055.83
LTM Dividend per Share26.0626.0626.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.7751.4055.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend70.8277.4681.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,445.26$4,013.29$8,339.54
Upside / Downside0.09%64.28%241.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130,671.00139,164.62148,210.31157,843.99168,103.84179,030.59184,401.51
Payout Ratio29.43%41.55%53.66%65.77%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38,460.0057,817.5579,529.09103,818.85130,930.27161,127.53170,571.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52,760.6953,260.8053,760.90
Year 2 PV (M)66,225.8667,487.2868,760.60
Year 3 PV (M)78,891.2281,155.9083,463.51
Year 4 PV (M)90,791.1194,282.6897,874.00
Year 5 PV (M)101,958.59106,883.23111,996.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,942,822.322,036,661.362,134,091.85
Equity Value (M)2,333,449.792,439,731.252,549,947.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,476.071,476.071,476.07
Fair Value$1,580.85$1,652.85$1,727.52
Upside / Downside-35.29%-32.34%-29.29%

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