Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kao Corporation (4452.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,067.18 - $5,124.78$3,972.55
Multi-Stage$6,056.09 - $6,654.19$6,349.36
Blended Fair Value$5,160.95
Current Price$6,451.00
Upside-20.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.03%7.57%151.36149.41148.53146.22140.03130.39122.47108.3895.2180.02
YoY Growth--1.31%0.59%1.58%4.42%7.40%6.46%13.00%13.83%18.99%9.69%
Dividend Yield--2.34%2.59%2.87%2.91%1.91%1.48%1.40%1.36%1.56%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)121,459.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71,246.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)50,213.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,291.8015,182.389,109.43
Cash Retained (M)50,213.0050,213.0050,213.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,291.80-15,182.38-9,109.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,921.2035,030.6341,103.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.10464.10464.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share55.8575.4888.57
LTM Dividend per Share153.52153.52153.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share55.8575.4888.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend209.37229.00242.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-0.37%0.63%1.63%
Fair Value$3,067.18$3,972.55$5,124.78
Upside / Downside-52.45%-38.42%-20.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)121,459.00122,219.91122,985.58123,756.06124,531.36125,311.51129,070.86
Payout Ratio58.66%64.93%71.20%77.46%83.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71,246.0079,353.4587,559.6995,865.64104,272.22112,780.36119,390.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-0.37%0.63%1.63%
Year 1 PV (M)73,820.3874,561.3575,302.32
Year 2 PV (M)75,774.8577,303.6778,847.75
Year 3 PV (M)77,178.1379,525.5781,920.12
Year 4 PV (M)78,092.6881,275.6384,554.89
Year 5 PV (M)78,575.2382,598.6986,785.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,427,170.642,551,454.252,680,777.67
Equity Value (M)2,810,611.922,946,719.143,088,188.05
Shares Outstanding (M)464.10464.10464.10
Fair Value$6,056.09$6,349.36$6,654.19
Upside / Downside-6.12%-1.58%3.15%

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