Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (4030.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$205.47 - $487.68$457.03
Multi-Stage$70.93 - $77.68$74.25
Blended Fair Value$265.64
Current Price$24.48
Upside985.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.37%2.63%0.520.310.001.000.981.000.741.251.250.44
YoY Growth--65.00%0.00%-100.00%1.99%-1.73%34.81%-40.64%-0.02%184.83%10.08%
Dividend Yield--2.10%1.47%0.00%6.59%5.91%6.53%5.76%9.31%8.23%2.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,923.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,517.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)384.71240.44144.27
Cash Retained (M)1,517.491,517.491,517.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-384.71-240.44-144.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,132.781,277.041,373.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)784.41784.41784.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.441.631.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.441.631.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$205.47$457.03$487.68
Upside / Downside739.35%1,766.95%1,892.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,923.542,048.572,181.732,323.542,474.572,635.422,714.48
Payout Ratio21.11%34.89%48.67%62.44%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.06714.701,061.761,450.911,886.172,371.882,510.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)664.74671.04677.34
Year 2 PV (M)918.49935.98953.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,167.381,200.891,235.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,411.481,465.761,521.59
Year 5 PV (M)1,650.861,730.601,813.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,828.6452,235.3854,734.23
Equity Value (M)55,641.5858,239.6460,935.23
Shares Outstanding (M)784.41784.41784.41
Fair Value$70.93$74.25$77.68
Upside / Downside189.76%203.29%217.33%

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