Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kureha Corporation (4023.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,484.59 - $4,443.60$3,307.94
Multi-Stage$4,298.13 - $4,719.74$4,504.90
Blended Fair Value$3,906.42
Current Price$3,820.00
Upside2.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.25%8.96%99.73112.74104.4271.0171.0177.2261.8743.5140.4544.11
YoY Growth---11.54%7.97%47.05%0.00%-8.04%24.80%42.20%7.57%-8.30%4.35%
Dividend Yield--3.17%4.01%3.82%2.23%3.31%4.92%2.50%1.65%2.19%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,468.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,431.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,037.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,693.601,058.50635.10
Cash Retained (M)4,037.004,037.004,037.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,693.60-1,058.50-635.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,343.402,978.503,401.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.7346.7346.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share50.1563.7572.81
LTM Dividend per Share94.8394.8394.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share50.1563.7572.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend144.98158.58167.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Fair Value$2,484.59$3,307.94$4,443.60
Upside / Downside-34.96%-13.40%16.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,468.008,604.758,743.708,884.909,028.389,174.179,449.40
Payout Ratio52.33%59.86%67.40%74.93%82.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,431.005,150.905,892.896,657.517,445.288,256.768,740.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Year 1 PV (M)4,789.554,837.164,884.76
Year 2 PV (M)5,095.105,196.885,299.67
Year 3 PV (M)5,352.395,513.575,677.96
Year 4 PV (M)5,565.825,790.416,021.73
Year 5 PV (M)5,739.446,030.396,333.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)174,288.21183,123.25192,313.01
Equity Value (M)200,830.51210,491.66220,530.14
Shares Outstanding (M)46.7346.7346.73
Fair Value$4,298.13$4,504.90$4,719.74
Upside / Downside12.52%17.93%23.55%

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