Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group Company (4013.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$428.00 - $1,339.47$1,255.28
Multi-Stage$184.04 - $201.13$192.43
Blended Fair Value$723.85
Current Price$271.20
Upside166.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.69%0.00%4.694.103.252.701.502.582.251.480.571.80
YoY Growth--14.39%26.15%20.37%80.00%-41.88%14.57%52.51%158.70%-68.28%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.34%1.12%1.42%1.21%4.70%4.10%2.69%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,357.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,652.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)705.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)471.47294.67176.80
Cash Retained (M)705.34705.34705.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-471.47-294.67-176.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.87410.67528.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)350.00350.00350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.671.171.51
LTM Dividend per Share4.724.724.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.671.171.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.395.896.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$428.00$1,255.28$1,339.47
Upside / Downside57.82%362.86%393.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,357.342,510.572,673.762,847.553,032.643,229.763,326.66
Payout Ratio70.08%74.06%78.05%82.03%86.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,652.001,859.412,086.802,335.892,608.552,906.793,077.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,724.221,740.561,756.90
Year 2 PV (M)1,794.381,828.561,863.06
Year 3 PV (M)1,862.531,916.001,970.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,928.712,002.892,079.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,992.962,089.222,189.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,111.8357,773.7560,537.55
Equity Value (M)64,414.6367,350.9870,396.34
Shares Outstanding (M)350.00350.00350.00
Fair Value$184.04$192.43$201.13
Upside / Downside-32.14%-29.04%-25.84%

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