Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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National Medical Care Company (4005.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$443.63 - $1,389.00$1,301.69
Multi-Stage$185.16 - $202.67$193.75
Blended Fair Value$747.72
Current Price$163.50
Upside357.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%2.58%2.001.001.001.002.001.001.000.000.751.55
YoY Growth--100.00%0.00%0.00%-49.98%99.92%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-51.61%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%0.54%1.11%1.21%3.74%2.76%2.14%0.00%1.41%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)312.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)223.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.5439.0923.45
Cash Retained (M)223.31223.31223.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.54-39.09-23.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.77184.22199.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.7744.7744.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.594.114.46
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.594.114.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.596.116.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$443.63$1,301.69$1,389.00
Upside / Downside171.33%696.14%749.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)312.69333.01354.66377.71402.26428.41441.26
Payout Ratio28.58%40.87%53.15%65.43%77.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.38136.09188.50247.15312.62385.57408.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)126.20127.39128.59
Year 2 PV (M)162.09165.17168.29
Year 3 PV (M)197.06202.72208.48
Year 4 PV (M)231.14240.03249.18
Year 5 PV (M)264.35277.11290.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,308.907,661.928,028.46
Equity Value (M)8,289.748,674.369,073.37
Shares Outstanding (M)44.7744.7744.77
Fair Value$185.16$193.75$202.67
Upside / Downside13.25%18.50%23.95%

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