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Definitive Analysis

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KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. (3543.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,817.48 - $3,278.52$2,427.99
Multi-Stage$2,890.16 - $3,173.18$3,028.97
Blended Fair Value$2,728.48
Current Price$2,832.00
Upside-3.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.55%0.00%54.1852.5152.6646.5344.6250.1749.4548.8023.700.00
YoY Growth--3.18%-0.29%13.18%4.29%-11.07%1.46%1.34%105.88%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%1.99%1.99%2.10%2.21%2.70%2.40%2.28%1.20%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,912.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,458.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,454.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,182.40739.00443.40
Cash Retained (M)3,454.003,454.003,454.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,182.40-739.00-443.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,271.602,715.003,010.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.5045.5045.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share49.9359.6766.17
LTM Dividend per Share54.0354.0354.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share49.9359.6766.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend103.96113.70120.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Fair Value$1,817.48$2,427.99$3,278.52
Upside / Downside-35.82%-14.27%15.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,912.006,028.186,146.646,267.446,390.606,516.196,711.67
Payout Ratio41.58%51.26%60.95%70.63%80.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,458.003,090.123,746.134,426.735,132.635,864.576,208.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate0.97%1.97%2.97%
Year 1 PV (M)2,866.602,894.992,923.38
Year 2 PV (M)3,223.793,287.963,352.77
Year 3 PV (M)3,533.943,639.993,748.13
Year 4 PV (M)3,801.093,953.934,111.34
Year 5 PV (M)4,028.994,232.514,444.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,037.45119,797.80125,788.61
Equity Value (M)131,491.86137,807.18144,368.40
Shares Outstanding (M)45.5045.5045.50
Fair Value$2,890.16$3,028.97$3,173.18
Upside / Downside2.05%6.96%12.05%

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