Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Saibo Co., Ltd. (3123.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$857.17 - $1,574.29$1,153.23
Multi-Stage$1,456.76 - $1,601.42$1,527.70
Blended Fair Value$1,340.46
Current Price$496.00
Upside170.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS2.75%0.00%16.0616.0614.0514.0514.0414.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.02%14.30%0.02%0.09%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.24%3.16%3.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)774.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)208.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)566.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)154.8596.7858.07
Cash Retained (M)566.18566.18566.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-154.85-96.78-58.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)411.33469.40508.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.0313.0313.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.5736.0339.00
LTM Dividend per Share15.9715.9715.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.5736.0339.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend47.5451.9954.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$857.17$1,153.23$1,574.29
Upside / Downside72.82%132.51%217.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)774.26787.79801.56815.56829.81844.32869.64
Payout Ratio26.87%39.50%52.12%64.75%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)208.08311.17417.81528.07642.07759.88804.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)289.76292.63295.51
Year 2 PV (M)362.28369.51376.81
Year 3 PV (M)426.38439.21452.28
Year 4 PV (M)482.75502.20522.24
Year 5 PV (M)532.01558.94586.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,887.9817,742.9218,632.14
Equity Value (M)18,981.1719,905.4220,865.94
Shares Outstanding (M)13.0313.0313.03
Fair Value$1,456.76$1,527.70$1,601.42
Upside / Downside193.70%208.00%222.87%

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