Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shikibo Ltd. (3109.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$875.46 - $1,460.72$1,133.22
Multi-Stage$1,738.43 - $1,912.75$1,823.90
Blended Fair Value$1,478.56
Current Price$1,001.00
Upside47.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.65%14.42%70.7045.7736.5334.0134.0934.1734.1730.6927.1418.54
YoY Growth--54.48%25.27%7.42%-0.23%-0.23%0.00%11.31%13.08%46.38%0.86%
Dividend Yield--7.25%4.08%3.62%3.80%3.61%3.44%3.50%2.40%1.86%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)951.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)290.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)660.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)190.20118.8871.33
Cash Retained (M)660.50660.50660.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-190.20-118.88-71.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)470.30541.63589.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.6712.6712.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share37.1142.7446.49
LTM Dividend per Share22.9222.9222.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share37.1142.7446.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.0365.6669.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Fair Value$875.46$1,133.22$1,460.72
Upside / Downside-12.54%13.21%45.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)951.00955.86960.75965.66970.59975.561,004.82
Payout Ratio30.55%42.44%54.33%66.22%78.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)290.50405.64521.96639.45758.12878.00929.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.49%0.51%1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)377.68381.48385.27
Year 2 PV (M)452.48461.62470.85
Year 3 PV (M)516.12531.83547.87
Year 4 PV (M)569.73592.98616.93
Year 5 PV (M)614.33645.83678.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,501.1320,500.8721,541.20
Equity Value (M)22,031.4723,114.6024,240.71
Shares Outstanding (M)12.6712.6712.67
Fair Value$1,738.43$1,823.90$1,912.75
Upside / Downside73.67%82.21%91.08%

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