Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Reach Machinery Co Ltd (301596.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$280.12 - $330.50$309.51
Multi-Stage$175.36 - $193.79$184.39
Blended Fair Value$246.95
Current Price$89.28
Upside176.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-19.26%0.00%0.050.070.610.160.160.160.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---21.44%-88.76%289.55%-5.76%5.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.14%1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3613.358.01
Cash Retained (M)73.9073.9073.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.36-13.35-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.5460.5565.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.7759.7759.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.011.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.011.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate-1.91%-1.91%-1.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$280.12$309.51$330.50
Upside / Downside213.76%246.67%270.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.78105.71104.65103.61102.57101.55104.59
Payout Ratio30.79%42.64%54.48%66.32%78.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.8845.0757.0168.7180.1791.3996.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.91%-1.91%-1.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.4845.9546.41
Year 2 PV (M)58.0759.2660.46
Year 3 PV (M)70.6272.8175.04
Year 4 PV (M)83.1686.6190.16
Year 5 PV (M)95.67100.66105.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,128.2010,655.6011,204.74
Equity Value (M)10,481.2111,020.8811,582.66
Shares Outstanding (M)59.7759.7759.77
Fair Value$175.36$184.39$193.79
Upside / Downside96.41%106.53%117.06%

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