Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Hongde Special Parts Co.,Ltd. (301163.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.64 - $7.49$5.92
Multi-Stage$13.04 - $14.38$13.70
Blended Fair Value$9.81
Current Price$28.10
Upside-65.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS15.06%0.00%0.280.250.020.020.090.140.030.410.000.00
YoY Growth--12.43%921.65%40.13%-79.60%-38.58%308.70%-91.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.25%1.17%0.09%0.05%0.26%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.214.502.70
Cash Retained (M)24.3924.3924.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.21-4.50-2.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.1819.8821.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6581.6581.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate5.45%5.45%5.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.64$5.92$7.49
Upside / Downside-83.48%-78.92%-73.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.0335.6735.3134.9634.6134.2735.29
Payout Ratio32.32%43.86%55.39%66.93%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.6515.6419.5623.4027.1630.8432.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.45%5.45%5.45%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)14.6914.8414.99
Year 2 PV (M)17.2417.5917.95
Year 3 PV (M)19.3619.9520.56
Year 4 PV (M)21.0921.9622.86
Year 5 PV (M)22.4823.6524.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)970.101,020.621,073.22
Equity Value (M)1,064.951,118.611,174.45
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6581.6581.65
Fair Value$13.04$13.70$14.38
Upside / Downside-53.58%-51.24%-48.81%

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