Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Karon Eco-Valve Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (301151.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.40 - $6.78$5.50
Multi-Stage$9.97 - $10.97$10.46
Blended Fair Value$7.98
Current Price$20.48
Upside-61.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS18.15%0.00%0.630.240.430.062.950.270.090.210.000.00
YoY Growth--163.63%-43.87%655.67%-98.09%979.20%214.74%-58.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.16%1.46%2.39%0.20%10.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.1810.116.07
Cash Retained (M)28.9528.9528.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.18-10.11-6.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.7718.8322.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)168.93168.93168.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.40$5.50$6.78
Upside / Downside-78.53%-73.13%-66.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.9280.1179.3178.5277.7376.9579.26
Payout Ratio64.22%69.38%74.53%79.69%84.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.9755.5859.1162.5765.9569.2673.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)51.6452.1752.70
Year 2 PV (M)51.0352.0853.14
Year 3 PV (M)50.1951.7453.32
Year 4 PV (M)49.1551.1953.29
Year 5 PV (M)47.9650.4653.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,434.581,509.281,587.06
Equity Value (M)1,684.551,766.911,852.56
Shares Outstanding (M)168.93168.93168.93
Fair Value$9.97$10.46$10.97
Upside / Downside-51.31%-48.93%-46.45%

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