Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Super-Dragon Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd (301131.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$168.18 - $198.15$185.69
Multi-Stage$115.69 - $126.92$121.20
Blended Fair Value$153.45
Current Price$47.85
Upside220.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.84%21.99%0.730.500.800.290.500.430.380.230.140.29
YoY Growth--46.01%-37.83%180.10%-42.54%14.51%13.72%63.83%71.83%-52.73%188.28%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.24%2.09%0.60%0.64%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.976.233.74
Cash Retained (M)17.7217.7217.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.97-6.23-3.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.7611.5013.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.0150.0150.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.230.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.230.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$168.18$185.69$198.15
Upside / Downside251.48%288.07%314.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.8353.0756.5260.1964.1068.2770.32
Payout Ratio64.43%69.54%74.66%79.77%84.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.1036.9042.1948.0154.4161.4465.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35.7736.1136.45
Year 2 PV (M)39.6440.4041.16
Year 3 PV (M)43.7344.9846.26
Year 4 PV (M)48.0449.8851.78
Year 5 PV (M)52.5855.1257.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,565.865,834.706,113.82
Equity Value (M)5,785.626,061.196,347.23
Shares Outstanding (M)50.0150.0150.01
Fair Value$115.69$121.20$126.92
Upside / Downside141.77%153.29%165.24%

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