Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co., Ltd. (300990.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$261.25 - $307.80$288.45
Multi-Stage$184.07 - $202.01$192.87
Blended Fair Value$240.66
Current Price$85.00
Upside183.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS34.00%0.00%0.490.440.300.240.000.110.110.090.000.00
YoY Growth--12.50%44.00%25.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%29.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.18%1.17%0.69%0.97%0.00%0.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)263.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)179.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.7933.0019.80
Cash Retained (M)179.27179.27179.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.79-33.00-19.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.48146.28159.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)170.56170.56170.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.860.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$261.25$288.45$307.80
Upside / Downside207.35%239.36%262.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)263.97281.13299.40318.87339.59361.67372.52
Payout Ratio32.09%43.67%55.25%66.83%78.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.70122.77165.43213.11266.30325.50344.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.72120.86121.99
Year 2 PV (M)157.32160.32163.35
Year 3 PV (M)197.65203.32209.11
Year 4 PV (M)240.85250.12259.64
Year 5 PV (M)287.10300.97315.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,392.5331,860.5033,384.65
Equity Value (M)31,395.1832,896.0934,454.10
Shares Outstanding (M)170.56170.56170.56
Fair Value$184.07$192.87$202.01
Upside / Downside116.56%126.91%137.66%

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