Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Xiangyuan New Material Technology Inc. (300980.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.35 - $68.31$64.02
Multi-Stage$9.64 - $10.54$10.08
Blended Fair Value$37.05
Current Price$27.46
Upside34.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.08%26.02%0.260.140.170.010.090.100.020.070.010.04
YoY Growth--84.51%-18.10%1,114.63%-83.37%-14.71%411.63%-70.34%449.48%-70.31%56.81%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.73%0.82%0.06%0.23%0.27%0.00%0.18%0.03%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.075.673.40
Cash Retained (M)20.6020.6020.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.07-5.67-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.5414.9417.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.35$64.02$68.31
Upside / Downside-11.34%133.13%148.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.3348.2751.4154.7558.3162.1063.96
Payout Ratio54.54%61.63%68.73%75.82%82.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7229.7535.3341.5148.3455.8959.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.69%6.69%6.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.6227.8928.15
Year 2 PV (M)30.4631.0431.62
Year 3 PV (M)33.2334.1835.15
Year 4 PV (M)35.9337.3138.73
Year 5 PV (M)38.5740.4342.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,106.201,159.631,215.11
Equity Value (M)1,272.011,330.481,391.13
Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
Fair Value$9.64$10.08$10.54
Upside / Downside-64.90%-63.28%-61.61%

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