Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongjin Irradiation Incorporated Company (300962.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.71 - $77.41$72.55
Multi-Stage$47.05 - $51.63$49.29
Blended Fair Value$60.92
Current Price$16.64
Upside266.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.16%22.84%0.260.280.250.150.230.190.170.020.100.03
YoY Growth---6.32%11.94%68.43%-35.47%18.30%15.77%698.80%-78.45%227.99%-11.26%
Dividend Yield--1.71%1.79%1.52%0.87%0.66%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.28%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5612.857.71
Cash Retained (M)66.9466.9466.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.56-12.85-7.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.3854.0959.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)264.06264.06264.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate1.26%1.26%1.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.71$72.55$77.41
Upside / Downside294.87%335.98%365.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.79109.47116.58124.16132.23140.83145.05
Payout Ratio34.88%45.90%56.93%67.95%78.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.8550.2566.3784.37104.43126.74134.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.26%1.26%1.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.1649.6250.09
Year 2 PV (M)63.5264.7265.95
Year 3 PV (M)78.9981.2683.57
Year 4 PV (M)95.6599.33103.11
Year 5 PV (M)113.56119.05124.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,022.0312,602.7013,205.59
Equity Value (M)12,422.9013,016.6813,633.05
Shares Outstanding (M)264.06264.06264.06
Fair Value$47.05$49.29$51.63
Upside / Downside182.73%196.24%210.27%

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