Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen AV-Display Co., Ltd. (300939.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.06 - $127.43$119.37
Multi-Stage$72.16 - $79.52$75.77
Blended Fair Value$97.57
Current Price$34.39
Upside183.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.73%0.00%0.390.400.400.330.000.300.070.100.020.00
YoY Growth---0.92%0.00%20.00%7,579.39%-98.55%339.72%-32.74%546.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.24%1.18%1.09%0.01%0.72%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2510.156.09
Cash Retained (M)33.5433.5433.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.25-10.15-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.2923.3927.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.01121.01121.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Fair Value$108.06$119.37$127.43
Upside / Downside214.23%247.10%270.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.2382.5483.8885.2586.6388.0390.68
Payout Ratio58.71%64.97%71.23%77.48%83.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6953.6359.7566.0572.5479.2383.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Year 1 PV (M)53.6454.1854.71
Year 2 PV (M)59.7860.9862.18
Year 3 PV (M)66.1168.1170.14
Year 4 PV (M)72.6475.5778.59
Year 5 PV (M)79.3683.3887.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,400.918,826.739,269.65
Equity Value (M)8,732.459,168.949,622.83
Shares Outstanding (M)121.01121.01121.01
Fair Value$72.16$75.77$79.52
Upside / Downside109.83%120.32%131.23%

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