Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Panda Dairy Corporation (300898.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.79 - $154.17$144.48
Multi-Stage$24.72 - $27.02$25.85
Blended Fair Value$85.17
Current Price$25.63
Upside232.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.74%8.64%0.510.230.230.170.770.310.250.460.220.23
YoY Growth--117.79%1.46%33.50%-77.44%150.21%24.86%-46.38%104.30%-1.13%1.63%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.15%1.08%0.75%2.11%0.49%0.39%0.74%0.36%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.2212.027.21
Cash Retained (M)20.3120.3120.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.22-12.02-7.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.088.2913.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)123.99123.99123.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.070.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.070.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.79$144.48$154.17
Upside / Downside215.22%463.72%501.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.12102.37109.02116.11123.66131.69135.64
Payout Ratio78.87%81.10%83.32%85.55%87.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.8183.0290.8499.33108.54118.52125.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.3678.0978.83
Year 2 PV (M)78.8880.3881.90
Year 3 PV (M)80.3782.6785.02
Year 4 PV (M)81.8384.9788.21
Year 5 PV (M)83.2687.2891.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,663.072,791.702,925.25
Equity Value (M)3,064.763,205.103,350.66
Shares Outstanding (M)123.99123.99123.99
Fair Value$24.72$25.85$27.02
Upside / Downside-3.56%0.86%5.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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