Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Daye Garden Machinery Co.,Ltd. (300879.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.03 - $23.87$15.77
Multi-Stage$13.92 - $15.27$14.58
Blended Fair Value$15.17
Current Price$35.25
Upside-56.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.82%0.00%0.170.190.240.200.100.070.050.250.200.00
YoY Growth---8.21%-22.72%24.03%99.18%40.93%46.63%-80.85%23.93%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.50%1.33%1.19%0.37%0.10%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.7414.848.90
Cash Retained (M)84.9384.9384.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.74-14.84-8.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.1970.0976.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.77200.77200.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.34%3.34%4.34%
Fair Value$11.03$15.77$23.87
Upside / Downside-68.72%-55.27%-32.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118.70122.67126.77131.01135.38139.91144.10
Payout Ratio28.45%40.76%53.07%65.38%77.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.7750.0067.2885.65105.18125.92133.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate2.34%3.34%4.34%
Year 1 PV (M)46.4046.8547.30
Year 2 PV (M)57.9259.0660.21
Year 3 PV (M)68.4270.4572.51
Year 4 PV (M)77.9681.0584.23
Year 5 PV (M)86.6090.9195.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,456.492,578.872,706.08
Equity Value (M)2,793.782,927.183,065.73
Shares Outstanding (M)200.77200.77200.77
Fair Value$13.92$14.58$15.27
Upside / Downside-60.52%-58.64%-56.68%

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