Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AnHui Jinchun Nonwoven Co., Ltd. (300877.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.63 - $34.88$22.59
Multi-Stage$11.20 - $12.23$11.70
Blended Fair Value$17.15
Current Price$29.06
Upside-40.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.26%11.67%0.130.040.250.750.020.050.080.030.000.11
YoY Growth--191.36%-82.12%-66.54%3,798.85%-62.97%-36.11%159.88%0.00%-100.00%145.04%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.31%1.49%3.57%0.04%0.09%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4311.526.91
Cash Retained (M)76.5176.5176.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.43-11.52-6.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.0864.9969.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.46117.46117.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.63$22.59$34.88
Upside / Downside-46.21%-22.26%20.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.1698.15104.53111.32118.56126.27130.05
Payout Ratio16.98%31.58%46.19%60.79%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.6531.0048.2867.6889.39113.64120.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.9828.2528.51
Year 2 PV (M)39.3440.0940.85
Year 3 PV (M)49.7851.2152.67
Year 4 PV (M)59.3661.6463.99
Year 5 PV (M)68.1271.4174.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,070.511,122.211,175.90
Equity Value (M)1,315.101,374.821,436.75
Shares Outstanding (M)117.46117.46117.46
Fair Value$11.20$11.70$12.23
Upside / Downside-61.47%-59.72%-57.91%

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