Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kunshan TopA Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd (300836.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.80 - $10.02$8.34
Multi-Stage$9.29 - $10.17$9.72
Blended Fair Value$9.03
Current Price$56.70
Upside-84.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS170.17%0.00%0.180.020.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.10
YoY Growth--745.45%-90.01%6,186.22%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-95.99%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.13%1.29%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.997.494.50
Cash Retained (M)39.4639.4639.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.99-7.49-4.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.4731.9734.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.4970.4970.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Fair Value$6.80$8.34$10.02
Upside / Downside-88.01%-85.29%-82.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.9460.5461.1561.7662.3863.0164.90
Payout Ratio34.17%45.33%56.50%67.67%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.4827.4534.5541.7949.1856.7160.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate0.00%1.00%2.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24.7024.9525.19
Year 2 PV (M)27.9828.5529.12
Year 3 PV (M)30.4731.3932.33
Year 4 PV (M)32.2733.5834.93
Year 5 PV (M)33.4935.1936.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)505.64531.43558.26
Equity Value (M)654.54685.08716.80
Shares Outstanding (M)70.4970.4970.49
Fair Value$9.29$9.72$10.17
Upside / Downside-83.62%-82.86%-82.06%

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