Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Naipu Mining Machinery Co., Ltd. (300818.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.83 - $32.14$15.96
Multi-Stage$6.44 - $7.04$6.73
Blended Fair Value$11.35
Current Price$27.67
Upside-58.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS84.93%65.14%0.240.190.010.040.090.010.010.020.040.00
YoY Growth--26.67%1,484.51%-69.96%-56.59%726.27%-24.72%-22.48%-55.22%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.73%0.07%0.18%0.72%0.07%0.10%0.00%0.30%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.727.334.40
Cash Retained (M)39.3039.3039.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.72-7.33-4.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.5731.9734.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.89160.89160.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.83$15.96$32.14
Upside / Downside-64.47%-42.32%16.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.6162.4266.4870.8075.4080.3082.71
Payout Ratio32.96%44.37%55.77%67.18%78.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.3227.6937.0847.5759.2672.2776.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.2625.4925.73
Year 2 PV (M)30.8431.4232.02
Year 3 PV (M)36.0737.1138.16
Year 4 PV (M)40.9842.5644.18
Year 5 PV (M)45.5847.7850.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)857.55898.97941.97
Equity Value (M)1,036.281,083.341,132.14
Shares Outstanding (M)160.89160.89160.89
Fair Value$6.44$6.73$7.04
Upside / Downside-76.72%-75.67%-74.57%

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