Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lihe Technology (Hunan) Co., Ltd. (300800.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.57 - $33.67$31.55
Multi-Stage$18.05 - $19.85$18.93
Blended Fair Value$25.24
Current Price$11.48
Upside119.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.13%24.29%0.180.150.150.170.170.140.120.040.020.01
YoY Growth--19.04%0.68%-10.01%-1.99%21.49%21.49%170.47%117.80%96.54%-51.30%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.40%1.14%0.85%0.87%0.65%0.48%0.18%0.08%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.065.043.02
Cash Retained (M)21.7921.7921.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.06-5.04-3.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7416.7618.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)232.69232.69232.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate2.03%2.03%2.03%
Growth Rate3.13%4.13%5.13%
Fair Value$28.57$31.55$33.67
Upside / Downside148.84%174.81%193.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.2841.9543.6845.4947.3649.3250.80
Payout Ratio45.90%54.72%63.54%72.36%81.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4922.9527.7632.9138.4544.3946.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.03%2.03%2.03%
Growth Rate3.13%4.13%5.13%
Year 1 PV (M)22.2822.5022.71
Year 2 PV (M)26.1526.6627.17
Year 3 PV (M)30.1030.9831.89
Year 4 PV (M)34.1335.4836.86
Year 5 PV (M)38.2540.1442.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,048.954,249.094,457.07
Equity Value (M)4,199.864,404.854,617.81
Shares Outstanding (M)232.69232.69232.69
Fair Value$18.05$18.93$19.85
Upside / Downside57.22%64.89%72.87%

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