Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Tangyuan Electric Co.,Ltd. (300789.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.75 - $79.82$74.80
Multi-Stage$79.53 - $87.30$83.34
Blended Fair Value$79.07
Current Price$28.65
Upside176.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%51.47%0.230.190.140.090.120.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--18.57%37.61%54.93%-22.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-49.29%17.24%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.29%0.91%0.66%0.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.547.214.33
Cash Retained (M)35.5635.5635.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.54-7.21-4.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.0228.3531.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.81143.81143.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate-8.35%-8.35%-8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.75$74.80$79.82
Upside / Downside136.47%161.09%178.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.7261.4765.4769.7274.2579.0881.45
Payout Ratio38.39%48.71%59.03%69.36%79.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.1629.9438.6548.3659.1671.1775.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-8.35%-8.35%-8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.3632.6732.98
Year 2 PV (M)45.1546.0146.88
Year 3 PV (M)61.0662.8164.59
Year 4 PV (M)80.7483.8587.04
Year 5 PV (M)104.98110.05115.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,113.3111,650.0812,207.40
Equity Value (M)11,437.5911,985.4712,554.21
Shares Outstanding (M)143.81143.81143.81
Fair Value$79.53$83.34$87.30
Upside / Downside177.61%190.90%204.71%

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