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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co., Ltd. (300751.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.17 - $592.80$202.80
Multi-Stage$61.19 - $66.91$63.99
Blended Fair Value$133.40
Current Price$99.35
Upside34.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS60.50%202.83%1.601.030.590.310.220.150.000.100.000.00
YoY Growth--56.05%73.94%89.27%40.49%47.56%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%4,964.38%
Dividend Yield--1.95%0.94%0.31%0.15%0.19%0.48%0.00%0.59%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)830.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)229.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)601.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.12103.8362.30
Cash Retained (M)601.20601.20601.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.12-103.83-62.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)435.08497.37538.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)278.66278.66278.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.781.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.781.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.382.612.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.17$202.80$592.80
Upside / Downside6.86%104.13%496.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)830.62884.61942.111,003.351,068.561,138.021,172.16
Payout Ratio27.62%40.10%52.57%65.05%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)229.42354.70495.29652.66828.391,024.221,084.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)325.73328.82331.91
Year 2 PV (M)417.70425.66433.69
Year 3 PV (M)505.47519.98534.77
Year 4 PV (M)589.18611.84635.15
Year 5 PV (M)668.98701.29734.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,542.8015,245.2315,974.53
Equity Value (M)17,049.8717,832.8118,644.88
Shares Outstanding (M)278.66278.66278.66
Fair Value$61.19$63.99$66.91
Upside / Downside-38.41%-35.59%-32.65%

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