Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.,Ltd. (300726.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$141.34 - $166.52$156.05
Multi-Stage$114.02 - $125.09$119.45
Blended Fair Value$137.75
Current Price$39.55
Upside248.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.39%57.07%0.300.500.600.160.290.240.100.100.000.01
YoY Growth---39.80%-16.67%286.00%-46.67%20.00%150.00%-0.77%41,659.81%-95.40%54.57%
Dividend Yield--0.79%2.08%1.32%0.23%0.41%1.00%0.46%0.26%0.00%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)258.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.9743.1025.86
Cash Retained (M)86.2886.2886.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.97-43.10-25.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.3243.1860.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)411.84411.84411.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$141.34$156.05$166.52
Upside / Downside257.36%294.57%321.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.84367.25391.12416.55443.62472.46486.63
Payout Ratio74.98%77.98%80.99%83.99%87.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)258.55286.39316.76349.86385.93425.21450.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)286.61289.33292.05
Year 2 PV (M)317.25323.29329.39
Year 3 PV (M)350.68360.74371.00
Year 4 PV (M)387.13402.02417.33
Year 5 PV (M)426.86447.48468.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,187.7747,370.3649,636.48
Equity Value (M)46,956.3049,193.2251,515.13
Shares Outstanding (M)411.84411.84411.84
Fair Value$114.02$119.45$125.09
Upside / Downside188.28%202.02%216.27%

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