Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Gian Technology Co., Ltd. (300709.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.39 - $38.08$24.97
Multi-Stage$12.47 - $13.63$13.04
Blended Fair Value$19.00
Current Price$51.10
Upside-62.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.33%30.90%0.170.090.230.180.130.050.230.300.160.02
YoY Growth--82.79%-59.91%26.53%35.78%165.84%-78.47%-20.43%90.35%837.81%44.30%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.28%0.94%0.50%0.47%0.12%0.90%0.91%0.52%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)170.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.1621.3512.81
Cash Retained (M)149.35149.35149.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.16-21.35-12.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)115.19128.00136.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.40191.40191.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.39$24.97$38.08
Upside / Downside-65.96%-51.13%-25.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)170.80181.91193.73206.32219.73234.02241.04
Payout Ratio12.56%28.05%43.54%59.02%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.4551.0284.34121.78163.73210.61222.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.0246.4546.89
Year 2 PV (M)68.6169.9271.24
Year 3 PV (M)89.3591.9294.53
Year 4 PV (M)108.35112.52116.81
Year 5 PV (M)125.72131.79138.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,948.482,042.592,140.30
Equity Value (M)2,386.532,495.192,607.86
Shares Outstanding (M)191.40191.40191.40
Fair Value$12.47$13.04$13.63
Upside / Downside-75.60%-74.49%-73.34%

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