Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

VT Industrial Technology Co.,Ltd (300707.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.40 - $10.14$5.38
Multi-Stage$2.31 - $2.52$2.42
Blended Fair Value$3.90
Current Price$14.50
Upside-73.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.44%-3.65%0.090.050.040.030.040.090.050.030.020.03
YoY Growth--69.87%49.97%33.30%-24.73%-60.00%81.01%62.96%50.00%-31.98%-77.59%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.37%0.21%0.18%0.24%0.65%0.27%0.11%0.18%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.722.951.77
Cash Retained (M)12.1712.1712.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.72-2.95-1.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.469.2210.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.34177.34177.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.40$5.38$10.14
Upside / Downside-76.57%-62.91%-30.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.5825.1226.7528.4930.3432.3133.28
Payout Ratio48.39%56.71%65.03%73.35%81.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.4114.2417.4020.9024.7829.0830.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9713.0913.21
Year 2 PV (M)14.4214.6914.97
Year 3 PV (M)15.7716.2216.68
Year 4 PV (M)17.0317.6818.35
Year 5 PV (M)18.1919.0719.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)331.78347.81364.45
Equity Value (M)410.16428.57447.65
Shares Outstanding (M)177.34177.34177.34
Fair Value$2.31$2.42$2.52
Upside / Downside-84.05%-83.33%-82.59%

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