Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Shuangyi Technology Co., Ltd. (300690.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.52 - $33.06$22.97
Multi-Stage$32.37 - $35.63$33.97
Blended Fair Value$28.47
Current Price$38.88
Upside-26.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.68%7.35%0.210.150.300.670.470.300.450.300.220.11
YoY Growth--38.74%-49.36%-54.75%43.13%55.53%-33.53%51.10%32.84%99.84%7.69%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.67%1.75%3.36%1.62%1.98%2.54%1.34%1.17%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2620.7912.47
Cash Retained (M)130.99130.99130.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.26-20.79-12.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.73110.20118.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.41166.41166.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Fair Value$16.52$22.97$33.06
Upside / Downside-57.50%-40.93%-14.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.32169.08171.89174.74177.64180.59186.00
Payout Ratio21.24%34.99%48.75%62.50%76.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.3359.1783.79109.21135.45162.53172.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.53%5.53%5.53%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)55.5256.0756.62
Year 2 PV (M)73.7675.2476.72
Year 3 PV (M)90.2192.9295.69
Year 4 PV (M)104.97109.21113.57
Year 5 PV (M)118.19124.18130.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,944.365,194.895,455.47
Equity Value (M)5,387.015,652.505,928.47
Shares Outstanding (M)166.41166.41166.41
Fair Value$32.37$33.97$35.63
Upside / Downside-16.74%-12.63%-8.37%

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