Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Amoy Diagnostics Co., Ltd. (300685.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.85 - $147.69$55.32
Multi-Stage$15.72 - $17.19$16.44
Blended Fair Value$35.88
Current Price$23.00
Upside56.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.00%45.84%0.160.140.130.140.090.070.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.88%9.13%-7.15%49.85%39.63%37.97%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-98.23%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.63%0.47%0.50%0.24%0.27%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)290.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)196.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.0236.2621.76
Cash Retained (M)196.49196.49196.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.02-36.26-21.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.47160.23174.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)390.64390.64390.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.85$55.32$147.69
Upside / Downside21.07%140.54%542.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)290.10308.96329.04350.42373.20397.46409.38
Payout Ratio32.27%43.81%55.36%66.91%78.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.61135.37182.16234.46292.79357.71378.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)124.45125.63126.81
Year 2 PV (M)153.96156.89159.85
Year 3 PV (M)182.19187.42192.74
Year 4 PV (M)209.16217.21225.48
Year 5 PV (M)234.93246.28258.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,234.895,487.745,750.26
Equity Value (M)6,139.586,421.176,713.21
Shares Outstanding (M)390.64390.64390.64
Fair Value$15.72$16.44$17.19
Upside / Downside-31.67%-28.53%-25.28%

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