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Definitive Analysis

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JiangSu JiuWu Hi-Tech Co., Ltd. (300631.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.07 - $18.63$13.59
Multi-Stage$8.61 - $9.42$9.01
Blended Fair Value$11.30
Current Price$32.82
Upside-65.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.64%17.43%0.200.070.150.160.130.130.110.110.040.04
YoY Growth--179.12%-53.33%-5.91%23.49%0.00%18.68%4.00%167.03%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.92%0.30%0.46%0.48%0.74%0.80%0.60%0.33%0.21%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2510.166.09
Cash Retained (M)80.1580.1580.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.25-10.16-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)63.9070.0074.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.13122.13122.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$10.07$13.59$18.63
Upside / Downside-69.30%-58.59%-43.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.2585.6390.2495.10100.22105.61108.78
Payout Ratio1.35%19.08%36.81%54.54%72.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.1016.3433.2251.8772.4395.05100.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)14.7314.8715.01
Year 2 PV (M)26.9827.5028.03
Year 3 PV (M)37.9739.0740.20
Year 4 PV (M)47.7949.6551.56
Year 5 PV (M)56.5359.2962.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)867.36909.71953.70
Equity Value (M)1,051.371,100.101,150.65
Shares Outstanding (M)122.13122.13122.13
Fair Value$8.61$9.01$9.42
Upside / Downside-73.77%-72.55%-71.29%

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