Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. (300580.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.06 - $119.29$43.15
Multi-Stage$12.47 - $13.64$13.04
Blended Fair Value$28.10
Current Price$29.09
Upside-3.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.97%22.49%0.170.160.080.110.070.060.060.050.040.04
YoY Growth--2.96%99.32%-23.43%51.79%8.59%14.29%2.53%24.13%20.40%67.62%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.88%0.80%1.14%0.90%0.83%0.67%0.63%0.33%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)300.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)230.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.0337.5222.51
Cash Retained (M)230.06230.06230.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.03-37.52-22.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)170.03192.54207.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.37500.37500.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.06$43.15$119.29
Upside / Downside-24.18%48.34%310.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)300.13319.64340.42362.55386.11411.21423.55
Payout Ratio23.35%36.68%50.01%63.34%76.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.08117.24170.24229.64296.03370.09391.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)107.74108.76109.78
Year 2 PV (M)143.77146.51149.27
Year 3 PV (M)178.22183.33188.55
Year 4 PV (M)211.13219.25227.60
Year 5 PV (M)242.56254.28266.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,354.805,613.445,881.97
Equity Value (M)6,238.226,525.576,823.62
Shares Outstanding (M)500.37500.37500.37
Fair Value$12.47$13.04$13.64
Upside / Downside-57.14%-55.17%-53.12%

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