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Definitive Analysis

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BizConf Telecom Co.,Ltd. (300578.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.21 - $0.27$0.24
Multi-Stage$0.38 - $0.42$0.40
Blended Fair Value$0.32
Current Price$18.71
Upside-98.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-47.28%-34.08%0.000.010.010.110.130.090.040.140.200.15
YoY Growth---65.51%6.89%-91.11%-15.63%47.28%132.78%-74.46%-28.00%33.33%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.07%0.05%0.51%0.44%0.19%0.14%0.68%0.71%1.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.332.081.25
Cash Retained (M)16.4716.4716.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.33-2.08-1.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.1414.3915.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)199.33199.33199.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-16.32%-15.32%-14.32%
Fair Value$0.21$0.24$0.27
Upside / Downside-98.86%-98.69%-98.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.6414.0911.9310.108.567.257.46
Payout Ratio1.02%18.82%36.61%54.41%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.172.654.375.506.186.526.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-16.32%-15.32%-14.32%
Year 1 PV (M)2.382.412.44
Year 2 PV (M)3.533.613.70
Year 3 PV (M)3.994.134.28
Year 4 PV (M)4.024.224.42
Year 5 PV (M)3.824.054.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)57.7461.2764.97
Equity Value (M)75.4779.6984.11
Shares Outstanding (M)199.33199.33199.33
Fair Value$0.38$0.40$0.42
Upside / Downside-97.98%-97.86%-97.74%

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