Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Henghe Precision Industry Co.,Ltd. (300539.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.31 - $9.54$6.21
Multi-Stage$3.35 - $3.64$3.49
Blended Fair Value$4.85
Current Price$46.68
Upside-89.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.49%12.63%0.130.080.130.080.080.090.030.040.020.02
YoY Growth--72.79%-39.89%66.29%-10.31%-2.96%214.79%-25.87%50.64%16.04%-46.43%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.79%0.97%0.92%1.25%1.27%0.23%0.38%0.11%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.256.413.84
Cash Retained (M)10.9010.9010.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.25-6.41-3.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.654.507.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.36234.36234.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.31$6.21$9.54
Upside / Downside-90.76%-86.69%-79.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.2554.5858.1361.9165.9370.2272.33
Payout Ratio78.72%80.98%83.23%85.49%87.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.3544.2048.3952.9357.8563.2066.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.8940.2640.64
Year 2 PV (M)39.4040.1540.91
Year 3 PV (M)38.8940.0041.14
Year 4 PV (M)38.3639.8341.35
Year 5 PV (M)37.8139.6441.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)590.42618.94648.55
Equity Value (M)784.76818.82854.12
Shares Outstanding (M)234.36234.36234.36
Fair Value$3.35$3.49$3.64
Upside / Downside-92.83%-92.52%-92.19%

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