Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Zhongya Machinery Co., Ltd. (300512.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.52 - $3.11$2.13
Multi-Stage$1.22 - $1.33$1.27
Blended Fair Value$1.70
Current Price$7.91
Upside-78.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.44%15.40%0.130.050.010.060.050.090.670.300.000.24
YoY Growth--169.83%233.72%-77.48%20.13%-38.46%-87.00%122.22%0.00%-100.00%665.52%
Dividend Yield--1.67%0.71%0.18%0.73%0.72%1.20%6.07%2.57%0.00%2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.854.282.57
Cash Retained (M)25.5725.5725.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.85-4.28-2.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.7121.2823.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.49403.49403.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate4.93%5.93%6.93%
Fair Value$1.52$2.13$3.11
Upside / Downside-80.83%-73.12%-60.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.2736.3038.4540.7343.1545.7047.07
Payout Ratio25.40%38.32%51.24%64.16%77.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.7013.9119.7026.1333.2641.1343.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate4.93%5.93%6.93%
Year 1 PV (M)12.5712.6912.81
Year 2 PV (M)16.0916.3916.71
Year 3 PV (M)19.2819.8320.40
Year 4 PV (M)22.1723.0223.91
Year 5 PV (M)24.7725.9827.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)395.60414.81434.77
Equity Value (M)490.47512.73535.81
Shares Outstanding (M)403.49403.49403.49
Fair Value$1.22$1.27$1.33
Upside / Downside-84.63%-83.94%-83.21%

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