Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co., Ltd. (300505.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$161.30 - $267.71$250.88
Multi-Stage$42.95 - $47.04$44.96
Blended Fair Value$147.92
Current Price$21.13
Upside600.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.69%9.41%0.190.130.110.030.060.050.040.050.020.03
YoY Growth--49.59%15.21%243.82%-45.83%14.29%15.96%-13.33%158.38%-24.39%-65.87%
Dividend Yield--1.20%0.99%0.48%0.13%0.55%0.53%0.33%0.35%0.07%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)370.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.0046.2527.75
Cash Retained (M)274.22274.22274.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.00-46.25-27.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.22227.97246.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)274.88274.88274.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.830.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.830.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$161.30$250.88$267.71
Upside / Downside663.37%1,087.33%1,166.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)370.02394.07419.69446.97476.02506.96522.17
Payout Ratio25.89%38.71%51.53%64.36%77.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.80152.55216.28287.65367.38456.27483.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)142.29143.64144.99
Year 2 PV (M)188.17191.75195.37
Year 3 PV (M)233.42240.12246.95
Year 4 PV (M)278.07288.77299.77
Year 5 PV (M)322.12337.68353.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,641.8311,155.8311,689.51
Equity Value (M)11,805.9112,357.8012,930.42
Shares Outstanding (M)274.88274.88274.88
Fair Value$42.95$44.96$47.04
Upside / Downside103.26%112.76%122.62%

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