Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sai MicroElectronics Inc. (300456.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.96 - $86.45$57.13
Multi-Stage$28.34 - $30.99$29.64
Blended Fair Value$43.39
Current Price$25.15
Upside72.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.02%34.03%0.080.030.050.060.050.110.100.030.020.02
YoY Growth--191.41%-51.35%-18.25%19.89%-52.61%19.03%183.71%109.35%-27.23%452.17%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.12%0.30%0.37%0.24%0.52%0.60%0.26%0.10%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,523.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,502.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)304.72190.45114.27
Cash Retained (M)1,502.701,502.701,502.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-304.72-190.45-114.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,197.981,312.251,388.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)732.61732.61732.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.641.791.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.641.791.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.821.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.96$57.13$86.45
Upside / Downside58.91%127.18%243.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,523.601,622.631,728.101,840.431,960.052,087.462,150.08
Payout Ratio1.37%19.10%36.82%54.55%72.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.90309.88636.341,003.931,416.621,878.711,988.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)279.34281.98284.63
Year 2 PV (M)517.08526.93536.87
Year 3 PV (M)735.38756.49778.00
Year 4 PV (M)935.40971.381,008.38
Year 5 PV (M)1,118.261,172.281,228.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,176.6218,006.2618,867.65
Equity Value (M)20,762.0921,715.3222,703.89
Shares Outstanding (M)732.61732.61732.61
Fair Value$28.34$29.64$30.99
Upside / Downside12.68%17.86%23.22%

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