Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mango Excellent Media Co., Ltd. (300413.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.38 - $19.97$13.34
Multi-Stage$6.68 - $7.30$6.99
Blended Fair Value$10.16
Current Price$35.76
Upside-71.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS84.77%21.12%0.180.300.140.120.100.010.020.030.010.02
YoY Growth---38.93%117.05%9.28%21.76%1,121.06%-53.67%-41.23%132.52%-43.64%-11.63%
Dividend Yield--0.65%1.17%0.37%0.40%0.18%0.02%0.07%0.13%0.11%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)935.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)934.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)187.17116.9870.19
Cash Retained (M)934.17934.17934.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-187.17-116.98-70.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)746.99817.18863.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.251,879.251,879.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.38$13.34$19.97
Upside / Downside-73.76%-62.71%-44.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)935.87996.701,061.491,130.491,203.971,282.231,320.69
Payout Ratio0.18%18.15%36.11%54.07%72.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.71180.86383.30611.29867.301,154.001,221.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)162.90164.45165.99
Year 2 PV (M)310.97316.89322.87
Year 3 PV (M)446.70459.52472.59
Year 4 PV (M)570.85592.80615.38
Year 5 PV (M)684.15717.19751.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,375.9210,877.0811,397.42
Equity Value (M)12,551.4913,127.9413,725.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.251,879.251,879.25
Fair Value$6.68$6.99$7.30
Upside / Downside-81.32%-80.46%-79.58%

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